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Prediction for CME (2025-05-06T16:55:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-05-06T16:55Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/38722/-1
CME Note: Relatively fast, narrow eruption seen to the south-southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 and farther to the east-southeast or directly southeast in STEREO A COR2; the CME is associated with a filament eruption taking place on the Earth-facing disk near S20W01 seen as a lifting off of dark plasma in GOES SUVI 304 and SDO AIA 304 around 2025-05-06T16:30Z with bright post-eruptive arcades, especially in SDO AIA 193.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-05-09T12:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2025-05-06T19:38Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 1100
Longitude (deg): E005
Latitude (deg): S22
Half-angular width (deg): 15

Notes: Low chance of a weak glance.
Space weather advisor: Duty forecaster

Lead Time: 51.77 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2025-05-07T08:14Z

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